I’m on the lookout for any recreation theoretical insights for probably the most primary type of The Resistance: Avalon. Particularly I’m taking a look at a 5 participant recreation, with simply two added roles: Merlin and the Murderer. I’m taking a look at methods that may be executed with out utilizing psychology, tells, hidden messages (together with however not restricted to cryptography and signing) and many others.
With out the extra roles – ie the vanilla model of the unique Resistance recreation – it’s fairly simple to calculate the successful probabilities for the rebels if each side play optimally – for it’s 30% (assuming the traitors can keep away from double-failing missions with two spies). The nice staff principally has three probabilities to establish the spies (or the nice staff). They usually don’t have anything higher than likelihood to depend on, so they may select every of the ten potential groups with equal likelihood, for a complete of three/10 successful likelihood.
When including Merlin, issues appear to be worse for the nice guys! If he takes no motion to assist the nice staff, he simply reduces their successful probabilities to twenty% (since he has a 1/3 likelihood of being killed). If he does assist the nice staff, he will increase their successful probabilities – however he additionally will increase his probabilities of being killed. Any motion he takes, or assertion he makes, which sways the opposite gamers to decide on the correct staff, may also be seen by the dangerous guys. Assuming no hidden communication, they may see every of the statements made, and know who inspired the successful staff, or discouraged the dropping ones.
So is there any technique for the nice staff which does higher than 20% on this setup? The technique have to be identified to all gamers forward of time. Simply to make it completely clear: I’m not asking for methods to “trace” to your team-mates which staff to choose, with out the dangerous guys noticing or understanding what’s going on.
